Breakfast in business: The battle of the century between Wall Street and retail investors spreads as silver prices rise more than 6% to a five-month high, marking a "super week" for the market
2021-02-01


Spot silver jumped more than 6 percent to a five-month high of $28.80 an ounce in early Asian trading on Monday, while gold jumped nearly $20 to near $1,867. GameStop ended a turbulent week with a nearly 70% gain on Friday, but the battle of the century between frenetic retail investors and Wall Street institutions continued as a short squeeze on physical silver continued to provide momentum. Commodity currencies were broadly weaker on Monday, while U.S. stock futures were broadly lower, with S&P 500 futures down more than 1 percent to their lowest level in more than three weeks and Dow Jones stock futures down more than 1 percent to their lowest level in more than a month. U.S. crude oil also opened lower, at one point hitting a one-week low of $51.64 a barrel.
 
Optimism was also dampened by moderate Republican lawmakers urging Biden to scale back the $1.9tn bailout package, which could be as large as $600bn.
 
This week (February 1 solstice7) brings a super week of interest rate decisions from the two major central banks, OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) and Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee (JMMC) meetings; In addition, a number of Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches, the epidemic and vaccine related news need to continue to watch, data, a number of European countries will be released in the fourth quarter GDP, and the US January non-farm payrolls report will also be the finale.
 
 
Market highlights of the week
 
① On Monday, Australian December Investor Loans m/m, China January Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Euro-Zone December Unemployment Rate, US January ISM Manufacturing PMI.
 
(2) on Tuesday, Australia announced the fed's interest rate decision, the euro zone's fourth quarter GDP, in 2021, the committee vote appoint, Atlanta fed chairman bo, in the federal reserve and Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, and the job market online conference of the Philadelphia fed speeches, Opec + joint technical committee (JTC) and the joint ministerial committee (JMMC) held the meeting in 2 to 3 days.
 
③ On Wednesday, New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate, China January Caixin Services PMI, US January ADP Employment Number, RBA Chairman Lway's speech.
 
(4) on Thursday, the bank of England announced interest rate decision and meeting minutes, st. Louis fed President bullard in an online activities on America's economy and monetary policy report, huck, the Philadelphia fed chairman of the federal reserve and Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, and the Philadelphia fed's speech online activities in the job market, the bank of England announced interest rate decision and meeting minutes, Australian trade in goods and services account in December, U.S. factory orders in December month rate.
 
(5) on Friday, the United States in January non-farm payrolls report, Australia the fed statement on monetary policy, the European central bank deputy governor DE gold at the London school of economics, more sponsored the 20th Germany conference speech, President of the San Francisco fed daley, the fourth "employment way" conference speeches and research team, the theme of "job market imbalance results: to understand the trends and determine the solution" in December, the French trade account.
 
⑥ On Saturday, ECB Executive Board member Anders Schnabel, ECB Governing Board member Mersch, ECB Governing Board member Olli Rehn and ECB Governing Board member Olli Holtzmann spoke at the 20th German Symposium organized by the London School of Economics and Political Science.
 
 
Monday opening quotation
 
 
 
 
Last week to review
 
 
The founder of the Reddit stock forum WallStreetBets told CNN on January 28 that there is no precedent for retail investors fighting short sellers in the United States, and he will not get involved as a bystander. He says he didn't expect the forum members to generate enough power to drive Game Station's share price up. Since 2021, the stock price of Game Station, which was bought by U.S. retail investors, has risen more than 20-fold. As of 28 days close, game station closed down more than 44 percent, but after hours trading once up more than 60 percent, long and short duel continues.
 
US President Joe Biden on Thursday signed a series of executive orders related to health care, including the reopening of Obamacare, the Affordable Care Act. Biden also said the two executive orders were designed to undo damage caused by Trump. He said Mr. Trump has made it harder for people to get medical aid and more expensive.
 
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres received the first dose of the new crown vaccine in New York on Monday (local time). "Appreciate the first dose of vaccine," Guterres tweeted. We have to start working to ensure that vaccines are available to everyone and everywhere. In an epidemic, no one should take any chances until we are all safe."
 
 
A quick overview of the world's major markets
 
 
U.S. stocks followed a global sell-off, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2 percent, falling below its last close for the year and Posting its biggest weekly drop in three months. Global stocks also fell the most since late October, partly as short-term traders piled into shorted stocks, causing hedge funds to scramble and trading platforms to come under pressure.
 
Day traders flocked en masse to stocks heavily shorted by institutions, fuelling speculation that hedge funds would trim their positions. And AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. Volatility in stocks that have been buzzing in Internet chat rooms spiked as brokerages said they would start to relax trading restrictions imposed after this week's wild swings.
 
 
Precious Metals and Crude Oil
 
Spot gold ended slightly higher at $1,877.65 an ounce after earlier hitting a nearly three-week high at $1,875.67, while silver rose nearly 6 percent this week as investors focused on rising speculative trading on Wall Street and the progress of the U.S. stock market stimulus plan.
 
Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, said gold futures prices on Friday were driven by "increased risk aversion due to uncertainty from GameStop's speculative trading."
 
Oil prices fell on Friday, following broader financial markets, under pressure from a still-uncertain consumer recovery. Crude oil futures in New York held near $52 a barrel for the third straight week.
 
Ongoing concerns about volatile retail trading dragged U.S. stocks lower, and while a breakthrough from Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine alleviated concerns about deteriorating consumption, it was clear that demand remains tepid.
 
Chevron Corp. reported a fourth-quarter loss as weak fuel demand hit its refining business. Tariq Zahir, a senior executive at Tyche Capital's global macro program, said there are "a lot of concerns about future demand, and large numbers of people are still not able to move freely." There will certainly be a big pick-up in demand, but who knows when.
 
 
Foreign currency
 
The dollar index was little changed on Friday, while the yen fell to its lowest level since mid-November as investors rebalanced their portfolios at the end of the month. The dollar has been largely range-locked against a basket of currencies over the past two weeks as investors assess whether the sell-off that sent the greenback down nearly 7% last year is likely to continue.
 
The dollar index against a basket of currencies was little changed at 90.53, up 1.49 percent from a three-year low of 89.206 hit on January 6. 'People are waiting for a new driver,' said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. 'I don't think we'll see that until next month.' The question is whether the correction in the dollar will continue or is over, and I think the jury is still out."
 
January employment data, due on Friday, is the next major driver, while investors are also focused on fiscal stimulus. The Senate and House of Representatives will next week advance President Joe Biden's plan to provide new assistance to Americans and businesses hit by the pandemic, top Democrats said Thursday.
 
Despite the deterioration in risk appetite, the yen underperformed, with USDJPY up 0.43% to 104.69, its biggest weekly gain since mid-November. It hit a 2 1/2-month low intraday and a near three-year low against the Swiss franc. Analysts attributed the move to several factors, including the dollar's yield advantage over the yen and month-end portfolio restructuring. BoJ policy makers discussed the benefits of allowing long-term yields to move more flexibly around the central bank's target, according to a summary of their January meeting released on Friday. Some of the move could also have been caused by a large short squeeze on the dollar, which Chandler said the market was vulnerable to.
 
Valentin Marinov, head of G10 FX research at Credit Agricole, said of the yen's fall against the dollar: 'It's a very interesting move, especially given that at the same time, global equity indices suggest risk sentiment is not improving.' When risk sentiment worsens, the yen usually gets safe-haven bids.
 
The Canadian dollar pared gains after earlier Posting its biggest gain in a week as the economy grew faster than expected. USDCAD fell 0.41% to 1.2777; It fell as much as 0.72 percent, the biggest one-day drop since Jan. 20.
 
AUDUSD fell 0.51% to 0.7644; UBS said investors have been holding large long positions in the Australian dollar, so a correction is likely. NZD/USD rose 0.31% to 0.7193.
 
 
International financial news
 
 
Britain is seeking to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a free trade area comprising 11 Asia-Pacific countries, as part of its post-Brexit planning, Sky News reported on January 30. According to the report, Britain's secretary of state for international trade, Liz. Truss will present his request on February 1 and talks are expected to take place in the spring. (CCTV News)
 
More than a week into his presidency, U.S. President Joe Biden has made legislation for the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 bailout a top priority, but hopes in the White House for a bipartisan deal on the issue are fading. The setback illustrates the enduring partisan divide in Washington. Mr Biden said on Monday that he was "open to negotiations on his plan", but the Republicans did not offer any alternative of their own. With Republicans flatly rejecting the size of Mr. Biden's stimulus plan, Democratic congressional leaders are moving forward without the support of Republican lawmakers. The so-called budget reconciliation process will begin next week, allowing Democrats to finish legislation on their own. Republicans howled, calling the unilateral move by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer a rejection of bipartisanship. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Friday the question is why Republicans are blocking the plan in the face of broad public support.
 
Modena (NYSE: Modena) on Wednesday confirmed that it is temporarily reducing shipments of its new Crown vaccine outside the United States due to capacity adjustments. 'Modena understands the importance of delivery planning in promoting vaccination and is in close communication with all relevant governments,' Modena said in a statement. Domenico Arcuri, commissioner of Italy's emergency committee for Novel Coronavirus, said the unilateral decision by vaccine suppliers to cut deliveries was "unacceptable" and that "our surprise, concern and disappointment are growing." Pfizer of the United States and AstraZeneca of the United Kingdom informed the European Union this month that they would reduce deliveries of the new vaccine due to capacity problems.
 
【 Canada upgrade entry quarantine measures: stop some routes Forced isolation test 】 January 29, the Canadian government has announced a series of upgrades and epidemic prevention measures against cross-border travel, including suspended the Canadian airlines flights from Mexico and the Caribbean countries, the entry air passengers forced isolation and tested at his own expense to the hotel, etc. Canada's federal government has agreed with the country's airlines to suspend all flights to and from Mexico and the Caribbean from January 31 to April 30. Speaking to reporters in Ottawa, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stressed that now is not the time for people to travel. He repeated his call for Canadians to cancel or postpone any non-essential cross-border travel plans.
 
 
Domestic financial news
 
 
[the Chinese economy got off to a good start, manufacturing PMI for seven consecutive months in 51% or more 】 China federation of logistics and purchasing, National Bureau of Statistics survey released today at the centre of the service industry in January 2021, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 51.3%, down 0.6% compared with last month, for seven consecutive months in 51% or more, rebound is displayed in the local epidemic, the economy is still maintaining the momentum of rapid rise. The sub-index changes showed that the growth rate of market supply and demand decreased in January and remained at a good level, among which the consumer goods industry had a good momentum of development. Small and medium-sized enterprises have maintained stable operation, the market is more optimistic about future market expectations. The rapid rise of enterprise costs is worth paying attention to. (CCTV News)
 
Our country already had 16 will be coronavirus vaccine to conduct clinical trials, including seven clinical trials into Ⅲ 】 Ministry of Science and Technology and social development slurry sampling, director of yuan-bing wu 30 in the first China development of blood at the conference said, at present our country already has 16 will be coronavirus vaccine into clinical trials, including 7 will be coronavirus vaccine into Ⅲ stage of clinical trials, a vaccine is conditional on the market. (Xinhua View)
 
[The average ticket price of the Spring Festival travel rush dropped to 651.36 yuan, the lowest in five years.] Compared with previous years, the ticket price of this year's Spring Festival travel rush is a little special. According to data released by Qunar, an online travel platform, the average price paid for air tickets had dropped to 651.36 yuan as of Jan 25, the lowest in five years before the Spring Festival travel rush. (Economic Daily News)
 
China has built the world's largest 5G network, with more than 718,000 5G base stations open by the end of 2020, achieving full coverage of all cities at and above the prefectural level, and more than 200 million 5G terminal connections, according to the latest statistics released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on January 26. In 2020, China will build more than 600,000 5G base stations, and by the end of 2020, more than 718,000 5G base stations have been opened. Among them, China Telecom and China Unicom jointly build and share more than 330,000 5G base stations. In 2021, China will continue to deepen the construction of 5G networks, promote joint construction and sharing, and build more than 600,000 5G base stations. (People's Daily)
 
A total of 17.77 million trips were expected to be made during the third day of the Spring Festival travel rush, China Central Television (CCTV) reported. Among them, 3.15 million passengers are expected to be transported by railway, 13.8 million by highway, 330,000 by waterway and 490,000 by civil aviation.